On May 18, 2019, Inside Survivor released the cast for Survivor 40 a season that only includes former winners of the show. Whoever wins Survivor 40, a season of some of the best former winners of the show, could go down as the greatest winner of all time. But who has a chance at winning the million dollar prize? Let’s take a look at each cast member’s chances from low to high and discuss who could end up being the winner of this season. In Part 1, The Mastermind will take a look at those who, from the outside looking in, have a very low chance of winning this illustrious all-winners season.
THE MOST UNLIKELY TO WIN
Sandra Diaz-Twine is a phenomenal person and even better Survivor player. I am personally very excited to see her on both Season 39 and Season 40 of Survivor. But surely in a season of people who have all won the game one time, the one person who has won twice has to be the biggest target. She made it way farther than The Mastermind Site expected in Survivor Game Changers and I hope she proves us wrong yet again. Unfortunately, Sandra has a reputation as one of the best to ever play. In any other situation that is a blessing, but in a return to Survivor it is most certainly a curse.
Parvati’s return to Survivor comes as a bit of a shock and like Sandra, with a reputation as one of the best to ever play, she’ll surely have a massive target on her back. That being said, Parvati was an instant target in both Micronesia and Heroes vs. Villains and made it to the final three in both seasons. With it being so long since she played Parvati might even go under the radar until everyone remembers who she is and how good she is at the game. The final four fire-making twist likely won’t be something that works in her favour but at least in terms of people and logistics, it would be reasonably do-able for her to play a game similar to what she accomplished in both Micronesia and Heroes vs. Villains.
Amber played Survivor a long time ago. In fact only Ethan Zohn is playing the game again after spending a longer time away, having spent less days in the game in Survivor All Stars. We’ve previously written about how Amber is a very underrated winner, but on a season like this where everyone is a target, you have to worry for those that actually aren’t as big targets. Amber may become an easy vote and could be a candidate to go home early. She is also not helped by being on the season with Rob as the two are going to be seen as a pair no matter how far they drift apart. I’d love to see Amber do well and prove all her doubters wrong, but it is looking very unlikely to happen given how this season is set up.
I’m not sure how someone so skilled in manipulation and so knowledgeable on social dynamics and psychology, who has laid out all of his Survivor tactics in books and podcasts, could avoid being seen as a massive threat on a return to the game. However, Rob has quite a few friends out on the island and if he’s able to perform as well in the survival aspects of the game as he did in the past, his tribe really would be foolish to send him home early. He’ll undoubtedly lose some weight being out on that island in Season 39, but Rob hasn’t always been in the best shape of his life in recent years. Not sure if this is something he wants on his Survivor resume but maybe this is when Rob might actually make the jury for the first time ever. Regardless of what happens, Rob might maintain his reputation as the best winner of all time on The Mastermind Site‘s Winner Rankings, but you’d have to think he’d just be too big of a threat to stay in the game for long.
Out of all the winners out there, Ben Driebergen might actually be the least skilled at the actual game…if you take immunity idol finding out of the equation. Obviously his game boiled down to much more than just immunity idol finds and he had a fair amount of social capital in a pretty powerful alliance at the start of the merge in Heroes vs. Healers vs. Hustlers. But asking him to out maneuver social players like Ethan Zohn, Jeremy Collins or even Michele Fitzgerald and strategists like Parvati Shallow and Yul Kwon is a really big ask. He’ll likely go with the flow early on but only so many idols can save him once the flow starts to not go his way.
If there’s one thing we learned from Tony’s brief spell on Survivor Game Changers, it’s that Tony can’t help but be Tony. The moment he hits the beach, we might witness the exact same Tony we saw two years ago and chances are he’ll run off immediately looking for the idol again. Even if he finds it, there’s almost a zero percent chance that he survives to the swap and the police officer could easily become the antagonist for a Sandra or Rob-like player who just needs a scapegoat to avoid being targeted early on themselves. If Tony makes the merge then the viewers have certainly won, but in terms of Tony’s chances at winning the game, even 1% might be generous. The only way he might manage it is if he has a Trish Hegarty-esque player to keep him safe and help clean up the bridges he burns, but someone like Kim or Denise who could fulfill that role would also be easily able to out-maneuver him unlike Trish was able to do.
Being the most recent winner on the cast, Nick Wilson might have an uphill battle ahead of him. He’ll be playing with some of his heroes and that could prove too much to handle for him, especially early on, which was the only part of the game that Nick struggled with in his first time out on the island. Nick should be an under-the-radar character and won’t be as big of a threat as all of the other names above him. However, the chances of him making it to the end and winning for a second time after being the most recent winner on the cast are very slim.
So there it is! The castaways who are most unlikely to win Survivor 40: All Winners. How do you think the above castaways will fare? What about everyone else? Make sure to check out Part 2 and Part 3 right here. Also be sure to check out The Mastermind Reality on Twitter @realitytvtms. Thanks for reading and see you soon!